Fun, but probably meaningless prognostication…..

1 (tie)-obama
3- hrc

So, just like that, the polls in Iowa have shifted drastically. What it means is debatable, but one thing is for certain: Hillary needs to get off her duff soon or else she’s going to have serious problems. It’s very clear that Democrats are hungry for a new, exciting candidate with a clear, compelling message for change.

There are lots of interesting nuggets in the poll– Obama and Edwards both lead McCain in Iowa, but HRC trails him 43-37. Same goes for Rudy– Obama and Edwards both beat him, HRC trails. For those interested, the whole poll is here.

A lot of the head-to-heads are within the margin of error, but the Obama and Edwards crowds have to be thrilled. I wouldn’t be surprised if HRC announces and then does as her husband did– ignores Iowa and focuses mainly on New Hampshire. Nevada and South Carolina, both likely to favor Obama or Edwards over HRC, will put a serious wrinkle into her plans.

One caveat: HRC is different than other candidates we’ve seen. If she gets in, she will have a ton of cash, and can easily stay in the race despite early losses. Obama and Edwards will need to rely on early wins propelling their fund raising machines and providing much needed momentum.


3 Responses to Fun, but probably meaningless prognostication…..

  1. johncos says:

    Great post as per usual and you’re right that it’s very early to prognosticate, but i want to add a couple points after looking at the data:
    John McCain has lost his maverick status amongst the populace (do to his support of the Iraq War) although not within the media. He is only taking 7% of Democrats and less than 40% of Independents (which are supposed to be his bread and butter.) I think that his support of the War will kill him in the general election (and despite the high name recognition) i don’t think that he can win the republican primary as is.
    Hillary has the highest negatives of any of the Democrats and despite her good odds of winning the primary, its somewhat shocking to see her at 4th in the Iowa caucus. I think the numbers show that Kerry is a nonfactor and Gore is under the radar right now. a
    I’m somewhat surprised that Edwards is polling so well. Hes a one term senator and a failed VP candidate, but he is telegenic and other than the Wal-Mart scuffel, virtually scandal free.

    The one thing that nobody’s mentioned yet but i feel like you were starting to anoodle is how the winner of NH, or NV or IW may not matter as much as in the past. For the first time in a while Super Tuesday could be the deciding day for the Democratic (and Republican) nomination. I think that Obama may have the best chance to win the nomination in the Southern States (the black turnout will be tremendous and he’s popular amond liberal Southern whites as well). I think that Super Tuesday will be the biggest day of the Spring for sure.

  2. askewed says:

    Since you two have covered the political analysis… I’ll make a different observation about McCain. With all respect to the years he spent in that tiger cage, the man is disturbing looking. His face has all but slid off of his skull. He’s a tough visual sell. I know that is not exactly pointed political commentary but holy hell he’s getting creepy. That a side… of late he seems to find his opinions in the morning polling data. Not that I don’t think many of them do but he has gotten very bad at selling it. I’ll never be 100% sure Bill felt my pain but I do know I’d have bought a car from that guy. McCain had his moment in 2000 and Rove stole it from him. He’d do well to fade away before I remember him for the wrong reasons.

    Edwards is too ‘shiny’. He needs to feel more real.

    Hillary is Hillary.

  3. anoodle says:

    The worst thing that could happen to McCain will be for Bush to come out in support of McCain’s so-called “plan” to add troops to Iraq. McCain’s entire political argument going into 2008 could have been, “if only they had listened to me, we’d have won in Iraq.” By Bush doing what McCain wants, he is undercutting McCain politically. Anyone with half a brain knows that 20,000 more troops in Baghdad are not enough to make a long term difference. Bush is kicking the can down the road, but by kicking the can, he’s kicking it to McCain. And McCain will look like a fool when we’ve lost 4000 troops and are looking at the same situation a year from now….

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